There are three ways the 11th pick can pan out for the San Francisco 49ers.
It will either be a draft hit, whiff, or bust. Unfortunately for the 49ers, there isn’t a ton of faith in them getting the 11th pick right.
Their track record speaks for itself. They are abysmal at picking in the first round of the NFL draft since 2017. Every player they have drafted first has been a whiff or a bust.
Only Nick Bosa and Brandon Aiyuk are their hits, but I wouldn’t count Bosa as a hit for them. It was the easiest slam dunk any team could have. You don’t need to watch football to make that call.
So, I do not give the 49ers credit for Bosa. They get it for Aiyuk. Ricky Pearsall is to be determined, but the 49ers chose him over Cooper DeJean, a head-scratching decision. Given their first-round resume, the 49ers will likely whiff with the 11th pick.
There shouldn’t be any confidence in them getting the pick right. What have they done to earn that trust? Absolutely nothing.
Their history is against them. Now, maybe they start to buck that trend. Pearsall ends up being an excellent player, and this year’s pick turns out to be a starter for years to come.
That would change the narrative of the 49ers’ being horrendous in the first round. It won’t glorify them since the trade-up for Trey Lance did serious damage to their reputation.
But it will begin to give them credibility again. Part of the reason the 49ers have been whiffing is that
they draft solely for need.
That may change in this year’s draft. On Tuesday at his pre-draft press conference,
General Manager John Lynch
talked about drafting for need versus
the best player available.
“You can’t go wrong picking a quality player,”
Lynch said
. “And if that isn’t like a glaring need on your team, that’s all right because this player is going to end up playing for you and contributing and hopefully moving the needle. And so, I think you have to. It’s a fine balance between drafting towards need, especially when you’re drafting up high. I think you got to be cognizant that you can’t go wrong, taking really good quality players.”
The 49ers seem to have finally recognized that looking at need isn’t the best. They might’ve even discovered last year, which is why their 2024 draft class is looking excellent so far.
It’s not impossible at all for the 49ers to nail the 11th pick by getting an impactful starter. But probability dampens the faith and trust in them.
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This article was originally published on
www.si.com/nfl/49ers
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Why the 49ers Will Likely Whiff on the 11th Pick
.
