1459 ET – Oil futures give up early gains and settle lower with the market rattled by a report that Kazakhstan is unlikely to compensate for producing above its agreed level within the OPEC+ group. Reuters quoted the country’s energy minister as saying Kazakhstan can’t cut output at its large foreign major-operated fields and will put its national interest first in deciding output levels. “The Kazakhstan story quickly morphed into other OPEC+ states wanting to increase production further,” Mizuho’s Robert Yawger says in a note. OPEC+ already plans to accelerate production increases in May, regardless of lower demand estimates. WTI falls 2.2% to $62.27 a barrel, and Brent retreats 2% to $66.12 a barrel. (
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Kazakhstan’s Reluctance to Cut Output Pressures Crude
1034 ET – Oil futures are lower after Reuters reports that Kazakhstan, an overproducer in the OPEC+ group, says it can’t cut output at its large foreign major-operated fields and will put its national interest first in deciding production levels. The accelerated unwinding of cuts coming in May by OPEC and its allies is expected to be offset by compensation from members that have produced above their agreed levels. “The overproduction appears to be here to stay and there will now be a heavy focus on OPEC+’s response moving forward,” Alex Hodes of StoneX says in a note. WTI is down 1.9% at $62.46 a barrel, and Brent falls 1.8% to $66.21 a barrel. (
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Oil Futures Turn Lower in Volatile Trade
0954 ET – Oil futures move into the red after gaining on President Trump saying he’s not looking to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell and signs of U.S. willingness to talk trade with China. “This on and off, indecisive approach to tariffs that has rattled the global economies during the past couple of months could keep oil-price volatility sharply elevated with the energy complex pushing oil specific fundamentals to the sidelines,” Ritterbusch says in a note. Analysts say a 4.6 million barrel weekly draw in U.S. crude stocks reported by the API is supportive of oil. Closely watched EIA inventory data are due at 10:30 a.m. ET. WTI is off 0.5% at $63.34 a barrel with June as the new front month, and Brent is off 0.6% at $67.04 a barrel.(
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Oil Rises on Iran Sanctions, Trump’s Softer Tone
1128 GMT – Oil prices rise for a second consecutive day after the U.S. widened sanctions on Iran and President Trump softened his tone on both China and the Federal Reserve. Brent crude and WTI trade 1% higher at $68.08 and $64.31 a barrel, respectively. The latest round of sanctions against an Iranian liquefied petroleum gas magnate and his network marks a step-up in Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign, as LPG is a major source of revenue for Tehran, according to analysts. Prices are also supported by Trump saying he isn’t planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell and that tariffs imposed on China would come down substantially. Meanwhile, reports citing the American Petroleum Institute ahead of official EIA figures show U.S. crude oil inventories fell by around 4.6 million bar*rels last week. (
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Oil Prices Rise as Seasonal Demand Picks Up
0818 GMT – Oil prices rise, with Brent crude up 1.5% at $68.45 a barrel and WTI up 1.55% at $64.66 a barrel. Brent crude had slid below $65 a barrel after the U.S. announced reciprocal tariffs and OPEC+ accelerated supply hikes, and remains down 5.2% on-month, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. That said, while the prospect of slowing demand is dragging down market sentiment, high-frequency market indicators are pointing to seasonal demand strength, ANZ writes. Improving margins on the crack spread—the price difference between crude oil and refined products like gasoline and heating oil—are supporting U.S. and China refinery operating rates, while U.S. jet fuel demand is above prepandemic levels, ANZ says. Overall, ANZ keeps a neutral outlook on oil prices. (
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