We are back.
My 2025 NFL mock draft 4.0 is officially here.
The
NFL Draft
is Thursday night, and the
frenzy of 2025 mock drafts
has reached peak heights.
Football analysts and draftniks across the board are attempting to piece together plausible and convincing real-life draft selections for all 32 teams. The primary rationale behind these choices usually comes down to “
team needs
” or “
best player available
,” but there’s a third factor that isn’t considered enough: The historical track records of general managers and other decision-makers in the team war rooms.
I usually write an article every year titled “
Historical NFL Draft Picks of All 32 NFL Teams
” but this year I am combining it within the context of a first-round mock draft.
The same great analysis, but with maximum SEO juice.
Let’s break down the 2025 NFL Draft if the teams decided to fully stick to their historical track record, instead of potentially reaching on a certain need. Note that this won’t be my last mock (coming the day of the NFL Draft), as this is just the last part of my prep before I submit my final mock draft 5.0.
- 2025 NFL Draft Guide
- 2025 NFL Draft Scouting Reports
- 2025 NFL Mock Drafts
2025 NFL Mock Draft
1. Tennessee Titans:
Cam Ward (QB – Miami)
Jon Robinson was let go as the Titans’ general manager in 2022 after serving in the role since the start of the 2016 season. The team replaced him with Ron Carthon, a former director of pro/player personnel with the 49ers (2017-2022) and Rams (2012-2016). Carthon was let go this past season after two years with the Titans.
They brought back head coach Brian Callahan despite the disastrous rookie season. In his first draft with the Titans, the team went trenches (offensive tackle/defensive tackle) with their top-40 picks.
On January 17th, the Titans hired Chiefs assistant general manager Mike Borgonzi as their new general manager.
Borgonzi spent 16 years in Kansas City serving several roles, from director of player personnel to assistant general manager, dating back to 2021.
This will be his first draft in the official general manager chair.
In his opening presser with the team, he acknowledged how important the quarterback was to solidify on the roster. Ergo, Miami’s Cam Ward will be the No. 1 overall pick.
But what about pick 35? Keep in mind that the Titans don’t have a third-round pick but two fourth-round picks.
Looking back at the last four years of Chiefs drafts when he served as assistant general manager, the team’s highest draft capital was at cornerback, EDGE, wide receiver, linebacker and offensive line.
The Chiefs have used a top-55 pick on a wide receiver for three consecutive seasons, with two EDGE rushers taken in the first round.
I fully expect the Titans to follow a similar path in round two, adding either a defensive pass rusher or another wide receiver for their rookie quarterback. It also strongly aligns with their
needs
.
Borgonzi has spoken at length about addressing both the offensive and defensive lines in offseason pressers.
An offensive line selection would be a slight surprise, especially given that the talent might run dry by pick 35. However, the trenches are very important to this new staff, especially with former Raiders general manager Dave Ziegler joining the staff as the new assistant assistant general manager. The most draft capital he spent with the Raiders was on trench players (defensive end
Tyree Wilson
at seventh overall).
2. Cleveland Browns:
Travis Hunter (WR/CB – Colorado)
Andrew Berry was hired as the Browns’ general manager in 2020 after a brief stint with the Eagles in 2019. This would be Berry’s second stint with Cleveland, as he previously worked as the vice president of player personnel from 2016 to 2018.
Berry nailed 2020’s first-round selection of tackle
Jedrick Wills
, who helped Cleveland boast one of the league’s best offensive lines. He then got insane value with linebacker
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
in round two of the 2021 Draft (although it required a trade up).
In 2022, the Browns were limited on picks because of the
Deshaun Watson
trade. They rounded out their first three selections with cornerback
Martin Emerson
, defensive end
Alex Wright
and wide receiver
David Bell
in the third round. The selection of a defensive end was not a surprise.
The one common denominator during the Browns’ drafts from 2016-2018 was a focus on pass rush, with defensive ends chosen with Day 1 or Day 2 selections each season. It wasn’t until 2020 that Berry shifted focus away from pass rush in favor of offensive line and defensive backs.
But the 2023 draft brought “meh” selections with wide receiver
Cedric Tillman
and defensive tackle
Siaki Ika
.
In 2024, the focus remained on the trenches with defensive tackle
Michael Hall
and offensive guard Zak Zinter their second and third round selections.
The offensive line was decimated by injuries in 2023, so there was a need for additional depth on the offensive line.
Even so, Berry knows if there is any concern with the offensive line, it’s worth drafting sooner rather than later.
The Browns seem to have confidence in tackle
Dawand Jones
after he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11. But considering he has ended his first two seasons on injured reserve (IR), the Browns should add more offensive tackle depth.
All in all, Berry has a strong track record of drafting offensive linemen, wide receivers, cornerbacks and/or EDGE rushers with premium draft capital. The last time they selected a player in round one, the Browns took cornerback
Greg Newsome
26th overall in 2021.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, Berry used a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a defensive back in each of his first three drafts (2020-2022), however, the Browns have not drafted a defensive back before the fifth round over the last two years (2023-2024).
But in recent years, he has gone away from pass rushers. Just another reason why Travis Hunter will likely be the pick for the Browns at pick No. 2 overall. The Browns view him as a receiver first, who would moonlight as a defensive back. Outside of
Jerry Jeudy
and Cedric Tillman, the Browns don’t have a ton of depth at receiver.
As for what to expect with the Browns’ second pick at 33rd overall, expect this player to be young/athletic.
Per
NFL IQ
, all five first and second-round picks under Berry were younger than 22 years old when they were drafted, while all five also posted a relative athleticism score (RAS) of 8.4 or higher and an NGS athleticism score of at least 79.
Based on this criterion, here are the following prospects the Browns might consider at 33rd overall:
- Shermar Stewart
- Jihaad Campbell
- Nick Emmanwori
- James Pearce Jr.
- Maxwell Hairston
- Quinshon Judkins
- Josh Conerly
- T.J. Sanders
- Jacob Parrish
- DJ Giddens
Also worth noting that
Baker Mayfield
was essentially just 22 years old, although his RAS score was not nearly as high as most of the top-end prospects Berry has played a part in drafting.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
was 22 years old when drafted by the Browns in 2023.
Worth noting that among this year’s quarterback class,
Shedeur Sanders
(23) and
Tyler Shough
(26) are much older than typical Berry targets. Yet another reason why it seems unlikely Sanders becomes a Brown at any point during the 2025 NFL Draft.
Jaxson Dart
and
Jalen Milroe
fit a closer mold at 22 years old. Milroe’s former offensive coordinator at Alabama — Tommy Rees — was also hired as the Browns’ new offensive coordinator.
Will Howard
and
Quinn Ewers
would be the most logical late-round quarterback options for the Browns. Ewers is 22 years old.
As for running backs, Berry was with the Browns when they drafted
Nick Chubb
at the top of the second round. Can’t help but draw a comparison to the Chubb selection if Cleveland opts for Quinshon Judkins with the 33rd overall pick.
Cleveland has been discussed as a potential trade-up team as well, but only once has Berry traded up.
3. New York Giants:
Abdul Carter (EDGE – Penn State)
Big Blue cleaned the house three offseasons ago, hiring Brian Daboll as head coach and Joe Schoen as general manager. Both guys spent their previous time with the Buffalo Bills. Management/ownership understood they needed to put
Daniel Jones
in a position to succeed in 2022 to (at the time) identify him as their long-term answer at quarterback.
In 2022, it worked. Their road to the postseason started with a strong 2022 draft, which they deserved much praise for. They attacked the defensive line early, a strategy implemented by Bills general manager Brandon Beane with
Kayvon Thibodeaux
. They continued to follow Beane’s layout by doubling down on offensive linemen with
Evan Neal
and
Joshua Ezeudu
.
Beane set a standard for addressing needs with multiple assets rather than just one player. Schoen has picked up on this during the Giants’ rebuilding process.
In the 2023 draft, New York used their highest pick on cornerback
Deonte Banks
, followed by center
John Michael Schmitz
and wide receiver
Jalin Hyatt
. It was a status quo draft for Schoen, given that outside of the defensive line, the other remaining positions he has targeted most include running back (
Eric Gray
in Round 5), wide receiver, cornerback and offensive line — exactly what he did in the 2023 draft.
Yeah, hate to be the bearer of bad news, but don’t hold onto those
Tyrone Tracy
bags too tightly.
Receiver was an obvious need in 2024, and they knocked it out of the park with LSU wideout
Malik Nabers
. They then addressed secondary needs with safety
Tyler Nubin
and cornerback Andru Phillips.
I predicted this
last season
with them going wide receiver, followed by safety/cornerback. Track record suggests that offensive line is the likeliest position they will go after they get their rookie quarterback.
But that may not be the case at third overall. Schoen has highly prioritized the defensive line, and it makes a ton of sense to re-invest in that position after foregoing it the last two drafts with a talent like Penn State’s Abdul Carter.
Schoen’s most targeted positions have been defensive line, running back, wide receiver, cornerback and offensive line. According to
NFL IQ
, Schoen has selected a defensive player with 60% of his draft picks during his tenure in New York (since 2022), the highest rate among any general manager over that time frame.
Also, the Giants have specifically focused on defensive backs on the first two days of the draft under Schoen, with a league-leading six selections in the top 100 since 2020.
He also tends to double down at positions in the same draft (a strategy I am a big fan of).
The Giants’ regime has also traded up twice in the last three drafts, compared to just one trade down.
Therefore, I think it’s more likely that the Giants (and not the Browns) trade back into round one for their preferred quarterback. And I think that signal-caller will be Shedeur Sanders. I’m convinced the Giants might be the highest on him versus any other team. New York has an extra third-round pick in this year’s draft to potentially move up the board.
If, for some reason, they don’t go quarterback with either of their first two picks or the quarterback they want is gone, I’d imagine it’s a top-tier defensive lineman/offensive lineman/cornerback prospect would be the target.
But I wouldn’t be half surprised if they took quarterback Tyler Shough at No. 34 if all the other quarterbacks have been taken to that point.
4. New England Patriots:
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – Arizona)
Bill Belichick was the Patriots’ stand-in general manager from 2000 until 2023. The 2023 draft was just the sixth time the Patriots held a first-round pick inside the top 20. Three of the four players (Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and Jerod Mayo) were defensive stars, with tackle
Nate Solder
and quarterback
Mac Jones
the offensive players.
Christian Gonzalez
‘s rookie year was cut short due to injuries, but he looks like a star in the making after his sophomore campaign.
Each enjoyed a successful NFL career, aside from Jones, and I’d classify them as hits.
The last time the Patriots had a top-five pick before the 2024 NFL Draft was 20 years ago (1994). They drafted Willie McGinest.
Now the Pats find themselves picking back inside the top five for a second straight year, after selecting
Drake Maye
third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Eliot Wolf served as the de facto general manager last season, and he was kept on board despite Mike Vrabel being hired as the new head coach.
Wolf’s tenure with the Browns/Packers suggests he is analytically driven, which strongly pointed in the direction of a quarterback at the top of round one last year.
He’s more than aware that if that position hits, it’s the biggest win for the roster overall.
Even though the majority of picks from last year look like Year 1 misses —
Ja’Lynn Polk
,
Caedan Wallace
,
Javon Baker
, etc. — his hits were at quarterback, between not only Maye, but also
Joe Milton
.
However, Wolf also traded down in round two last season to lose out on wide receiver
Ladd McConkey
to double-dip at the position between Baker/Polk. Not a bad process by any means to get two shots at a position of need, but the results were less than ideal.
Regardless, there’s no debating that receiver and offensive tackle are premium positions Wolf targeted in last year’s draft. The one premium position they didn’t address was the pass rush.
According to
NFL IQ
, Wolf spent a league-high seven of their eight picks (88%) on the offensive side of the ball. Out of those eight picks, the Patriots doubled-dipped at three position groups, bringing in two quarterbacks (Maye and Milton), two wide receivers (Polk and Baker) and two offensive linemen (Wallace and Robinson).
Wolf also spent time with the Packers before becoming the assistant general manager of the Browns from 2018-2019. In his first year with the Browns, they drafted Baker Mayfield,
Denzel Ward
,
Austin Corbett
and Nick Chubb.
In Wolf’s second draft with the Browns, they had no first-round pick (traded for
Odell Beckham Jr.
). They selected cornerback
Greedy Williams
in the second round. Wolf played a role in the Browns’ acquisition of Beckham to surround his young quarterback with more weapons.
The Patriots have tried to trade for wide receiver talent over the last two offseasons but have yet to finalize any deal.
Wolf has also been vocal about an updated grading system last season, citing it will be much closer to what was done in Green Bay. It’s less about role and how the Patriots can use said player and more about the actual value of the pick/player, etc.
In theory, music to my ears as a Patriots fan. Gone are the days of the Patriots “reaching” on a player who likely would have been available much later in the draft. Fewer overall “reaches” on players that would fit their scheme the best. Draft smarter, not harder.
Last year’s staff featured a lot of former Packers coaching personnel. But this year, it’s very different, headlined with Vrabel at head coach, Josh McDaniels returning as the offensive coordinator and Terrell Williams as the new defensive coordinator (formerly of the Lions/Titans).
A lot of high-end coaching experience on the roster, from the coordinators to the positional coaches.
Vrabel’s addition should add another wrinkle to what Wolf will advise from the analytics side. He was the head coach in Tennessee for six seasons, spearheading six different draft rooms with two different general managers.
With Jon Robinson from 2018-2022, the position invested in most was wide receiver, followed by cornerback, defensive line and EDGE, and then offensive line by a fair margin.
Worth mentioning that the Robinson/Vrabel combination had no fear of scooping up players who fell due to injury concerns. Robinson was more than happy to select both
Jeffery Simmons
(2019, 19th overall) and
Caleb Farley
(2021, 22nd overall) in past drafts amid massive injury concerns.
In Vrabel’s lone draft with Ron Carthon during 2023, the team addressed top team needs at premium positions with tackle-guard convert
Peter Skoronski
and quarterback
Will Levis
. They showcased forward-thinking with not only the Levis selection (
Ryan Tannehill
was in a contract year) but with running back
Tyjae Spears
, anticipating the departure of
Derrick Henry
.
I do find it interesting that the Titans didn’t draft a single corner in 2023, despite it being a glaring need.
It’s interesting to note that despite the Titans’ actions during the 2023 free agency period — signing multiple offensive linemen pieces — they still went offensive tackle in round one. It was also the first time in the entire Vrabel era that he drafted an offensive lineman inside the top 15. All other offensive line players were selected in round two or later.
I’ve theorized that after some of Vrabel’s recent comments about there being “a lot” of future NFL starting tackles in this draft, they might roll the dice on an offensive tackle on Day 2 instead of potentially reaching for one at fourth overall.
This aligns not only with what we have seen mostly from Vrabel’s drafts, but also drafts from Patriots new offensive line coach Doug Marrone. Marrone formerly coached the Bills and Jaguars, spending second-round draft capital on three different tackles, including guys like
Jawaan Taylor
and
Cam Robinson
. They also had much longer arms than what LSU’s
Will Campbell
is bringing to the table.
A lot to unpack here with the Patriots holding the fourth overall selection, in which I could see them going in a myriad of directions. I’m a Patriots fan, so if there are any historical trends I want to take a deeper dive on more than most, it’s my Pats.
I’ve been firmly on the
Armand Membou
over Will Campbell to the Patriots trin since my
mock draft 1.0
. And there’s been no reason for me to feel the need to pivot back to Campbell even as the heavy betting favorite. But there’s no doubt that both guys have their flaws, and the drop-off is substantial after the top-two blue-chip non-quarterbacks.
If the Patriots go offensive line in round four, I think it’s Membou over Campbell (unless we get something more off-the-wall, such as a
Kelvin Banks
or
Josh Simmons
selection if the Patriots have one of them ranked at OT1).
Patriots staff writer Evan Lazar also noted in his latest mock draft that Membou would be the selection at fourth overall.
But if it’s not offensive line at all with them opting to wait… Georgia pass rushers
Jalon Walker
or
Mykel Williams
, Michigan’s
Mason Graham
and Arizona wideout Tetaiora McMillan all seem very much in play. Heck, Boise State running back
Ashton Jeanty
or tight end
Tyler Warren
could be the pick.
It is based on the combination of both Wolf (offensive-driven selections in the NFL Draft) and Vrabel (open to drafting receivers with high-end capital), perhaps the Patriots will help their quarterback with an upgrade at pass-catcher instead of across the offensive line.
Vrabel did say in a press conference very early on that they needed guys to help make contested catches for Maye, alongside getting him help protecting off the edge.
And given how unsuccessful the Patriots have been trying to trade for veteran receivers, drafting one in the top five might be the best avenue to acquire a top-end receiver.
Also, another interesting tidbit about the Patriots’ front office. Second-year personnel executive Alonzo Highsmith most recently served as the general manager of football operations for the University of Miami.
Former Miami Hurricanes draft-eligible players this season that overlapped with Highsmith from 2022-2023 include
Xavier Restrepo
, Brashard Smith and
Elijah Arroyo
.
Keep an eye out on some of these former Hurricanes to be drafted by the Patriots in later rounds.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars:
Ashton Jeanty (RB – Boise State)
The Trent Baalke era finally came to a crashing end in 2024. The former Jaguars general manager was fired and replaced by James Gladstone, formerly of the Los Angeles Rams, as the director of scouting. Gladstone noted during his NFL Scouting Combine press conference that by prioritizing the offensive and defensive fronts, in addition to point scorers, as their top targets. He also mentioned that addressing the interior of the offensive line is important (protect
Trevor Lawrence
) and that the running back class is very deep.
Gladstone has also been very front-facing with the media, stating multiple times that they want to select intangibly-rich players and how important that is in the evaluation process. It’s a stark contrast from Baalke, who was notorious for selecting players based solely on arm length rather than anything else.
Given how active Gladstone was in Jacksonville’s free agency period by turning over the roster, I expect the unexpected from Jacksonville in this year’s draft. They have six picks in the first four rounds (two third-round picks as well).
I also expect an analytically driven approach from Gladstone, following a lot of elements from the Rams’ front office. For example, the Jaguars have not done top-30 visits. Per NFL IQ, Gladstone explained this decision as wanting to avoid any “implicit bias” that could creep up and trust his staff’s scouting process.
As for player/position selections based on what the Rams have done historically in the Les Snead era, here’s what to expect…
A lot of defensive backs have been selected with high-end draft capital, although not much in recent years. Specifically, they never shied away from undersized cornerbacks.
Texas corner
Jahdae Barron
has those rich intangibles, and therefore, I understand his recent buzz/connection with Jacksonville. Although he projects best as an inside cornerback, which is not what Jacksonville technically needs on their current roster.
After that, it’s worth noting that the Rams also heavily drafted running backs, wide receivers and offensive tackles.
Los Angeles went heavy on the defensive line last season, but that might have been a less predictable trend given they were trying to replace future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald. Given the depth of defensive tackles in this class, this might be an area where they look to get pieces later on.
Deone Walker
would be a great fit in round three or round four.
The Rams also were trying to trade up for tight end
Brock Bowers
, but to no success.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, Snead has used 31.2% of his Day 2 picks on running backs and wide receivers, the second-highest rate in the NFL since 2012.
In terms of trends from the 2024 NFL Draft, according to clevanalytics.com, seven of the Rams’ 10 draft picks in 2024 were 23 or older (including their first- and second-round picks). In 2023, Snead drafted two players over the age of 25 (
Stetson Bennett
and
Byron Young
).
But back to fifth overall. Don’t rule out Georgia’s Jalon Walker or Mykel Williams. Both are top-10 defensive talents with the requisite intangibles that Jacksonville continues to harp on. Especially Walker.
And we can’t forget Ashton Jeanty. Current Jaguars running backs coach Chad Morton was the running backs coach for Seattle when they drafted fellow Mountain West back Rashaad Penny in the first round back in 2018.
New Jaguars head coach Liam Coen this earlier in the offseason regarding the fifth overall pick, per The Coachspeak Index: “We want to play physical defense. We want to play a physical brand of football. We want to play good defense; we want to be fundamentally sound on special teams. But we’d better go light that scoreboard up on offense.”
I think it’s noteworthy that an offensive-minded head coach was so blunt about defense, although coming with the caveat of lighting up the scoreboard.
Both Coen and Gladstone have been blunt about the trenches being a top priority, even though a cornerback does make some sense given their current roster, combined with what the Rams have done historically.
Coen was the former offensive coordinator at Kentucky in 2023, overlapping time with both defensive tackle Deone Walker and cornerback Maxwell Hairston. Hairston’s favorite player is
Jalen Ramsey
, per Dane Brugler.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, new assistant linebackers coach
Kevin Wilkins
spent last season coaching EDGE rushers at the University of Michigan. Per Jaguars.com, EDGE
Josaiah Stewart
ranked second in the Big Ten in sacks (8.5) in 2024 and finished the season as the second-highest rated EDGE in college football.
The Jaguars have also been reported to be “in” on another Michigan player,
Will Johnson
, according to Tony Pauline.
Despite the Michigan connection, I feel like the Mason Graham to Jaguars mock draft consensus is a sucker’s play. It is the least favored bet among those inside the top five and seems like a great one to take advantage of the overconfidence in the market.
Based on what the Rams have done under Snead (not just last season), there’s some betting value on Johnson. But for mock drafts, I think the best direction is for this new regime to go on the offensive.
Case in point, I’m growing more and more into this Jeanty selection. After all, Snead took Todd Gurley 10th overall, and it looked like a great draft pick until he signed the contract extension.
As a Snead disciple, I can’t think of a Rams-esque pick better than Jeanty, who is known to light up the scoreboard, score points and be a player of high character. Seems like a Jaguars pick to me.
6. Las Vegas Raiders:
Armand Membou (OT – Missouri)
Pete Carroll was hired as the Raiders’ new head coach and John Spytek was hired as the team’s new general manager. Spytek is a Michigan alumnus and spent the last nine seasons in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ front office. He was the Bucs’ assistant general manager from 2023-2024.
What we can glean from his time spent in Tampa Bay under Jason Licht is that cornerback will be a top position to target. It was Licht’s most often picked position in rounds three and four. However, they have gone away from it in the last two seasons, with just one defensive back (safety
Tykee Smith
) selected.
The next most-drafted positions were defensive line, safety and running back.
The Bucs’ first pick in two of the last three seasons was a defensive tackle/EDGE player. But the top two picks have all followed the same pattern. Trench players.
Whichever was the first pick between defensive tackle, EDGE or offensive line, the opposite was the next selection.
The second picks (aside from last season) were all offensive linemen. Again, that’s pretty in line with what we have seen from Licht’s past drafts. The Bucs have drafted an offensive lineman in the top three rounds the last five years, including four inside the top two rounds.
Last year, it made sense that Tampa Bay went away from defensive tackle (instead opting for a bigger need on the offensive line), which is not the case with Las Vegas. They could easily draft a defensive tackle/EDGE player with their first overall pick.
If Spytek follows in the footsteps of Licht, the top positions are cornerback, defensive line, EDGE and offensive line.
Now it remains to be seen how much impact Pete Carroll will have on the team’s draft selections. We can look at his tenure with John Schneider in Seattle to get another layer of insight.
From 2010-2023, Seattle spent the majority of its draft picks inside the top four rounds on wide receivers, offensive linemen (specifically interior) and defensive linemen. The Seahawks also infamously destroyed every single mock draft when they selected
Devon Witherspoon
fifth overall in Carroll’s last draft.
If anything, I’d expect Seattle to avoid players with major red flags.
The latest dot connection with the Raiders has been to Missouri offensive tackle Armand Membou. But don’t be shocked if it’s another cornerback. Spytek is a former Wolverine. Tom Brady is a former Wolverine, etc.
Spytek was also quoted as saying, “I love offensive linemen.” And I’m sure there are at least 1,000 quotes of Carroll celebrating “establish the run” concepts.
As another note, new Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly also makes his NFL return after a year as the Ohio State play-caller, coming off a National Championship season. Kelly served as the UCLA head coach between 2018 and 2023. It would be very surprising if the Raiders didn’t select at least one Buckeye in this year’s class.
7. New York Jets:
Mason Graham (DT – Michigan)
The Jets have a new head coach and general manager pairing in 2025, featuring former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and former Broncos front office staffer Darren Mougey.
Mougey was in the player personnel department for the Broncos starting in 2021, before being promoted to assistant general manager. He worked under George Paton over this time frame, so we will reference Paton’s draft trends for Mougey (who served under Rick Spielman with the Minnesota Vikings). Note that Spielman is with the Jets as a senior personnel football advisor.
The main trends I found from past Vikings drafts with Paton on staff involve running backs, cornerbacks, and tackles.
The Broncos followed suit in Paton’s first draft with the team after selecting
Javonte Williams
in the second round (35th overall). The Broncos were also loaded at cornerback in 2021 but still drafted
Patrick Surtain
anyway, along with three other defensive backs. In 2022, they selected two defensive backs in rounds four and five. In 2023, they again traded up to draft a cornerback (
Riley Moss
), after trading up to select receiver
Marvin Mims
. In 2024, it was QB Box Nix at 12th overall, followed by defensive end Jonah Eliss and receiver
Troy Franklin
in rounds three and four.
The one position they didn’t address from 2021-2024 was offensive tackle.
Spielman was never one to invest in the defensive line/EDGE early, although Paton bucked that trend slightly by selecting
Nik Bonitto
in 2022. This suggests Paton was more willing to add on the defensive front, although that’s not as dire a need as Mougey needs to hit with the Jets.
Also, Sean Payton might have had a bigger voice than anybody in Denver’s war room since he arrived in 2023. I wouldn’t anticipate the Jets being as aggressive as Payton has been as a drafter. But he did usually stick pretty close to needs drafting, even if it was a bit unorthodox at moments. Although Glenn technically does draw his roots from the Payton tree (similar to Dan Campbell), so he might follow Payton’s draft tendencies: Defensive backs, linebackers, wide receivers and tackles.
If Glenn follows the Lions’ draft strategy, he will also prioritize offensive tackles and defensive linemen. If Glenn learned anything from Payton and Campbell, it would be to stick to your board and get your guys even if it might look like a reach on draft night.
The Lions were not afraid to stick to their own internal values on players. They showed us in 2023 that they are willing to “reach” on players they value the highest, even at less than premium positions. They are also not afraid to take shots at players with injury concerns, such as
Jameson Williams
,
Hendon Hooker
and
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
, during the last three seasons.
The Campbell/Holmes tandem has selected defensive linemen with the most draft capital, followed by offensive line, wide receiver/tight end, and defensive back.
I’d expect the new combination of Glenn/Mougey to not go entirely off-the-wall with the seventh overall selection. At least positionally. Where they have their tackles, wide receivers ranked versus consensus could be drastically different.
Mougey stated at the coaching meetings that the team was not done adding right tackles, so it will be an area they likely address in the draft.
But given their top needs and the general manager’s/coaching’s respective track records, the Jets’ top picks should be wide receiver, tight end and the trenches (offense and defense).
Historically speaking, the Jets have selected an offensive or defensive lineman in the first round in six consecutive drafts dating back to 2019. Former general manager Joe Douglas made three other first-round picks (nine total) in those six years (
Zach Wilson
,
Garrett Wilson
,
Sauce Gardner
), according to
NFL Draft IQ
.
Although under a new regime, this doesn’t necessarily hold as much weight unless ownership is dictating selections.
8. Carolina Panthers:
Jalon Walker (LB – Georgia)
Dan Morgan was hired as the Panthers new general manager in 2024 after they fired Scott Fitterer. He was the assistant general manager in Carolina from 2021-2023. Before that, he was the Bills’ director of player personnel from 2018-2020. Off-ball linebacker, defensive tackle, offensive guard, EDGE and running back rounded out the Bills’ top picks during Morgan’s tenure there.
In his first draft with the Panthers in 2024, they took a receiver in the first round (traded up), and followed up by drafting a back in round two. All four of the drafted players played in the SEC.
Carolina operated by the numbers under Fitterer, taking low-cost fliers on quarterbacks and drafting premium positions with high-end draft capital. They drafted offensive tackle
Ikem Ekwonu
sixth overall three years ago before selecting
Bryce Young
first overall in 2023.
Fitterer tended to gravitate toward uber-athletes as the rounds trickled down, something many forward-thinking franchises do. He has hardly shied away from drafting athletic-gifted players with high-end draft capital. Before selecting Ekwonu, Fitterer drafted
Jaycee Horn
and
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Both were two uber athletes from the SEC. Considering Morgan worked under Fitterer, it’s not surprising to see Morgan also draw from the SEC across team needs.
Look for a productive EDGE rusher/defensive lineman from the SEC to be the Panthers’ first selection.
And as the draft continues, more uber athletes from the SEC will start rising on the Panthers’ draft board that fits the remaining needs. Morgan wants to draft a safety at some point during the draft.
Carolina is also a primed “trade-down spot,” selecting one spot ahead of the quarterback-needy Saints. According to
NFL Draft IQ
, the Panthers have spent a league-high seven picks on offensive skill position players on Days 1 and 2 of the draft since 2021. Pass-catcher cannot be ruled out, especially at tight end. Morgan said they feel good about their current wideouts.
9. New Orleans Saints:
Will Campbell (OT – LSU)
Longtime Saints general manager Mickey Loomis has had his hands on the team’s roster dating back to 2002. He picked up an additional title of executive vice president in 2013, so that’s an appropriate spot to reference his drafting history.
Since then, the positions he’s invested the most in with Day 1 or 2 draft picks include defensive backs, linebackers, wide receivers and tackles. In 2024, he followed the same script with
Taliese Fuaga
and
Kool-Aid McKinstry
.
The Saints under Loomis have traditionally been pretty easy to predict. It’s been chalk drafts since 2022. And since 2011, Loomis has traded up 20 times. Trade downs? Zero.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, dating back to 2018, the Saints have drafted an offensive or defensive lineman with six out of their last seven first-round picks (
Chris Olave
was the only non-trenches pick). Since 2002, the Saints have used 15 first-round draft picks on offensive and defensive linemen, the most in the NFL over that span.
So, is going quarterback at 2025 locked and loaded? Saints beat reporter
Nick Underhill
thinks quarterback will be more likely with the team’s second selection.
It might just be a matter of how high Kellen Moore and the rest of the offensive coaching staff are on Jaxson Dart that decides the pick. But if this team truly wants to rebuild, they should just take the best player available and wait until Day 2, like Underhill suggests, to take a signal-caller.
History indicates that drafted players will also have a high RAS score of at least 7.5 (per Clevanalytics.com). And it’s most likely a player on the trenches at pick No. 9 if it’s not a quarterback.
10. Chicago Bears:
Omarion Hampton (RB – North Carolina)
General manager Ryan Poles took over a roster in 2022 with no first-round draft capital and glaring roster needs at wide receiver, offensive line and cornerback.
He addressed the secondary in the 2022 draft by selecting cornerback
Kyler Gordon
and safety
Jaquan Brisker
. He blew the wide receiver selection with
Velus Jones Jr.
in round three but made up for it by acquiring veteran wideout
DJ Moore
during the 2023 offseason as part of the trade with the Panthers for the No. 1 overall pick. He also “made up” for the blown
Chase Claypool
trade by acquiring
Keenan Allen
this offseason for a fourth-round pick and drafting
Rome Odunze
inside the top 10.
After foregoing the offensive line in 2022, Poles invested in it with
Darnell Wright
last season. He also reinvested in the secondary with cornerback
Tyrique Stevenson
.
Upgrading the offensive line was going to happen sooner rather than later, given Pole’s roots in the Chiefs’ player personnel department, which has taken a newer approach to bolstering the offensive line in the early rounds.
They have made a clear effort this offseason to build the offensive line in free agency. But they might not be completely done.
To pinpoint the archetype of the offensive line play Poles is looking for early on, we can look at the guys he has drafted in past seasons, including Wright,
Braxton Jones
, Zach Thomas and
Kiran Amegadjie
.
Some potential prospects in this draft that look similar according to mockdraftable.com include Aireontae Ersery, Armand Membou and Jonah Savaiinaea.
Not many are mocking the Bears’ decision to draft an offensive lineman piece at 10th overall, but Jones is entering the last year of his rookie contract and could be upgraded. The offensive line is complete from an overhaul perspective with three new starters, but they can still make it even better in the draft. Take no chances.
Outside of a slightly off-the-wall tackle selection, I’d expect more resources thrown at the defense.
Specifically in the secondary in the later rounds (like they did in two of the last three seasons) and on the defensive line with the more premium picks.
They drafted two defensive lineman players in 2023 in
Zacch Pickens
and
Gervon Dexter
, but neither fired to astounding results. The Chiefs went heavy on drafting defensive linemen during Poles’ tenure there, and it’s a major need after essentially foregoing it entirely in 2024.
Bolstering the D-Line/EDGE alongside
Montez Sweat
seems like the most sensible move if they elect to go away from doubling down on the O-Line in the first round.
Again, it’s likely going to be a pass rusher, given the team’s need and Poles’ background from Kansas City.
Through his first three years as Bears GM, Poles has loved drafting offense.
Per
NFL Draft IQ
, he has used all three of his first-round picks on offensive players and all four of his second-round picks on defense.
And these players have been top-tier athletes. According to
NFL Draft IQ
, Each of the Bears’ draft classes under Poles has ranked among the top 15 in the NFL by average Next Gen Stats athleticism score dating back to 2022. The Bears’ 2024 draft class ranks as the most productive draft class by average production score (84.9) over the past 20 years (since 2005).
According to clevanalytics.com, Poles has used six out of seven non-quarterback top 65 picks on prospects with a Relative Athleticism Score (RAS) of 9.2 or higher. Projected first-round/second-round picks with RAS scores of 9.2 or higher include Nick Emmanwori, Shemar Stewart, Will Campbell, Quinshon Judkins, Armand Membou, Jihaad Campbell,
Donovan Smith
,
Emeka Egbuka
, Omarion Hampton, Maxwell Hairston and
Grey Zabel
.
But let’s not pretend like Poles will be the only voice in the Bears’ war room. New head coach Ben Johnson is going to have his say. They have been connected to running backs throughout the pre-draft process, and it would shock nobody given Johnson was on the Lions’ coaching staff when they traded up for
Jahmyr Gibbs
.
Poles was also with Kansas City when the Chiefs drafted
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
. The Bears have also been heavily connected to tight end Tyler Warren throughout the pre-draft process.
11. San Francisco 49ers:
Shemar Stewart (EDGE – Texas A&M)
The 49ers have gone heavily on defensive players with their first selection in five of the last eight drafts (since 2017).
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, in his first four drafts as general manager (2017-2020), John Lynch used three first-round picks on defensive linemen. Between 2021 and 2024, the 49ers used only one pick on a defensive lineman in the first three rounds (
Drake Jackson
in 2022).
They tend to go best player available, so we could get another first-round defensive lineman to the 49ers come draft day after they went wide receiver in round one last season. Especially in a class filled with strong defensive linemen talent.
There is a severe lack of depth on the defensive line. As the Athletic’s Matt Barrows wrote regarding the 49ers’
biggest needs this offseason
, this team should double down on drafting defensive tackles, given the lack of proven depth on the roster.
Albert Breer noted on the latest MMQB podcast episode that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has told people in the building that he doesn’t need first-round offensive linemen. They can make it work. And this is how they have traditionally operated.
The 49ers’ need for drafting offensive linemen doesn’t necessarily scream that it is always the top priority, especially when you believe in the offensive scheme making top linemen less of a priority.
High-end prospects that fit the Niners’ needs include: Shermar Stewart,
Walter Nolen
, James Pearce, Maxwell Hairston, Will Johnson, Kelvin Banks Jr. and
Oluwafemi Oladejo
.
The Niners have two third-round picks, rounding four inside the top 100.
Also, it’s noteworthy that Lynch has drafted an offensive skill position player in the first three rounds of every draft since 2018.
They have drafted four wideouts inside the top 45 between
Dante Pettis
,
Deebo Samuel
,
Brandon Aiyuk
and
Ricky Pearsall
.
And among the eight wide receivers selected by the 49ers since 2019, six were age 23 or older when they were drafted. Only one (
Jacob Cowing
at 5-foot-8) was shorter than 5-foot-11; four weighed at least 205 pounds.
Older and big wide receivers seem to be 49er targets.
Here is a list of receivers that are at least 205 pounds, 5-foot-11 and 23 years old:
Tre Harris
and
Savion Williams
.
Jayden Higgins
is only 22, but checks off the other requisite boxes.
The 49ers’ highest-drafted cornerback since 2017 is 6-foot-3, 198-pound
Ahkello Witherspoon
(second round). Regarding defensive backs (specifically corners), the 49ers have traditionally preferred guys with long arms. Although last season was a bit of an outlier, after they selected
Renardo Green
(sub-50th-percentile arm length and wingspan).
San Francisco has drafted a cornerback/safety in just four of the last eight drafts, but they have used a round three pick or higher when selected.
12. Dallas Cowboys
Matthew Golden (WR – Texas)
Jerry Jones has been in charge since 1989, but we won’t go that far back with the game of football changing so dramatically over the past decade.
Since 2010, the Cowboys have drafted four cornerbacks (two first-rounders and three second-rounders) with meaningful draft capital:
Trevon Diggs
,
Chidobe Awuzie
,
Byron Jones
, Morris Claiborne and
Kelvin Joseph
.
2023’s draft was abnormal with a defensive tackle, tight end linebacker rounding out Dallas’ first three picks. They didn’t address any major team needs. In 2022, they went offensive tackle, EDGE and wide receiver with their first three picks.
In 2024, it was more team needs addressed with offensive tackle, EDGE and offensive guard.
After defensive backs, it’s been a lot of pass rushers, offensive linemen and wide receivers that Big D has targeted in recent drafts with draft capital in the first three rounds.
Per
NFL Draft IQ
, the Cowboys have spent a league-high eight picks on the trenches (offensive line or defensive line) within the first three rounds since 2021, including each of their last three first-round picks.
Wide receiver is a glaring need for Big D in this year’s class, and ultimately the direction they go in on Night 1. Either Tetaiora McMillan, Matthew Golden or Emeka Egbuka.
According to new head coach Brian Schottenheimer, he highly values perimeter players.
“You’re always looking for game-changers when you’re picking 12th. You’re looking for guys who influence the game… You build it from the outside in. You got corners and receivers. They get isolated one-on-one. Pass rushers [and] tackles, they get isolated one-on-one… Usually that’s the way I’ve looked at it … when you’re building a roster, kind of think of it as you’re building from the outside in based on guys that get isolated a lot.”
As for the elephant in the room, Dallas has to add a running back in this year’s draft. Jones has spent high draft capital on backs in the past, although it’s been a while since he has selected a rusher earlier than Day 3.
He took
Deuce Vaughn
last season in round six in 2023. In 2019, they drafted
Tony Pollard
in round four. It was back in 2016 when they took
Ezekiel Elliott
in the first round. You have to go back to 2011 to the last time the Cowboys selected a Day 2 running back (DeMarco Murray).
13. Miami Dolphins:
Will Johnson (CB – Michigan)
Chris Grier took over as the Miami Dolphins’ general manager in 2016 after serving as the team’s Director of College Scouting for nine years. He’s partially responsible for the franchise’s upward trajectory, as the selection of tackle
Laremy Tunsil
in the 2016 NFL Draft has reaped major benefits.
However, a tampering scandal involving Tom Brady left the Dolphins without a first-round pick in 2023. In 2024, they had a first-round pick that they used on pass rusher
Chop Robinson
and a second-round pick used on
Patrick Paul
.
Grier has selected a tackle in the first round twice since 2016 (zero since 2021)
The current OL is a big concern and a heavily mocked position for the Dolphins. But Grier hasn’t invested much draft capital into the position in the last several seasons.
However, he almost exclusively selects players at premium positions. All ten of the Dolphins’ first-round picks under Grier were players at premium positions (QB, WR, OT, ED, DT, CB) per
NFL Draft IQ
.
Some interesting nuggets from tracking Grier’s draft history reveal that he has drafted more running backs (
Kenyan Drake
,
Kalen Ballage
,
De’Von Achane
,
Jaylen Wright
) and tight ends (
Mike Gesicki
,
Durham Smythe
and
Hunter Long
) than wide receivers in the first four rounds (
Jaylen Waddle
, Leonte Carroo, and
Erik Ezukanma
). Before Waddle’s selection in 2021, Gesicki was his highest-drafted pass catcher as a second-round selection in 2018. In 2023, they drafted a WR-TE convert player in Stanford’s
Elijah Higgins
. In 2024, they drafted Mailk Washington in the 6
th
round.
Grier has also drafted three different tight ends in the top four rounds since 2018.
As for the running backs, the team’s reliance on analytics and track record suggests to me that they won’t end up using any premium picks on a runner (Round 2 or higher).
The Dolphins haven’t drafted a running back in the top 50 since taking
Ronnie Brown
second overall. The early 2000s were wild.
Still, the track record suggests Miami will add another RB, potentially as early as Round 3 or at least on Day 3.
Recall that they “needed” a running back in 2021 and drafted
Gerrid Doaks
in the seventh round. Entering the 2016 Draft (Grier’s first as GM), they had just lost leading rusher
Lamar Miller
. They addressed the position in that draft by adding Kenyan Drake in the third round (73rd overall). The fifth-round pick from the previous year, Jay Ajayi, rushed for 1,272 yards to Drake’s 179 the following season.
Miami has shown a willingness to draft DL/EDGE players with high-end draft capital.
In the last 6 drafts, when Miami had a first-round pick, they drafted a DL/EDGE piece in 4 of those drafts. 5 of those drafts included a DL/EDGE in Rounds 1 or 2.
According to the Athletic’s Mike Silver, the Bills beat out the Dolphins and 49ers for former Chargers edge rusher
Joey Bosa
.
The Dolphins also really need a CB, but they have not used a 1
st
rounder on one in a while. They used their first pick at 51
st
overall in 2023 on
Cam Smith
and drafted CB
Noah Igbinoghene
at 30
th
overall in 2020.
According to clevanalytics.com, the last three first-round picks made by the Dolphins (Chop Robinson,
Austin Jackson
and Noah Igbinoghene) all generated Relative Athleticism Scores of 9.5+ (which does not include Jaylen Waddle, who did not test before the draft). Based on this logic, one could estimate that Kelvin Banks won’t be the Dolphins’ pick at 13
th
overall based on his 8.32 RAS score.
14. Indianapolis Colts:
Tyler Warren (TE – Penn State)
Hired in 2017, Chris Ballard was once regarded as one of the league’s sharpest executives because of his exemplary drafting and roster-building approach. But the shine has worn off with the team’s inability to find a long-term answer at the quarterback position. And the entire Colts’ organization has been correctly criticized for how they have handled the
Anthony Richardson
situation over the last two seasons.
The franchise QB seems to be solved with the selection of Anthony Richardson after Year 1, but more injuries and inconsistent play have put that in serious question.
Still, Ballard has mostly understood the harmony required when debating a player’s fit versus the best player available.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, since taking over as Colts GM in 2017, Ballard has used just two of their 27 combined Day 1 and 2 draft picks on a quarterback (Anthony Richardson in 2023) or running back (
Jonathan Taylor
in 2020). Likewise, they’ve taken seven edge rushers and five wide receivers out of those 27 combined early picks. None of the three tight ends selected in the middle rounds have gone on to become starters (yet).
Last year
, I expected Ballard to address the team’s flagrant lack of pass rush with an edge defender in the 2024 NFL Draft after forging the position in the 2022 and 2023 NFL Drafts. With the 15
th
overall pick, they took an edge rusher.
Before 2022, Ballard drafted pass rushers with Day 2 picks or higher in every prior draft except for 2020.
Indianapolis has a track record – no pun intended – of selecting athletic players with ideal size and speed. Since 2017, Colts’ draft classes average the highest Next Gen Stats athleticism score (77.6) league-wide. (
NFL Draft IQ
).
Keep RAS players like CB
Darien Porter
, EDGE
Landon Jackson
, CB Maxwell Hairston, OG
Miles Frazier
, EDGE J.T. Tuimoloau, OG
Tate Ratledge
, C
Jared Wilson
, OG
Dylan Fairchild
, OG
Caleb Rogers
, OT
Logan Brown
or OG
Eli Cox
on the Colts’ short list of potential targets.
Also noted by Sharp Football’s
Ryan McCrystal
, Ballard tends to gravitate towards drafting older players with 3-plus years of college experience. Nine of his last 12 first and second round picks have spent at least three years in college (they also had at least 9.0 RAS scores)
Even so, combined with Ballard’s willingness to go BPA over need, I’m still bullish that Indy won’t hesitate to add another pass-catcher with high-end draft capital if the right guy is there at 14. Very much could see them trade down and go OL if the pass-catcher they want isn’t available at 14.
The Colts have drafted a WR in the first three rounds in five of their last six drafts.
As I referenced in my AFC South Forecast, Colts GM Chris Ballard didn’t sugarcoat the need for a massive upgrade at tight end in 2025 in his post-season presser. They are going to add a receiving threat, but they didn’t do it during free agency.
I fully anticipate them adding another TE of consequence in the NFL Draft or through a veteran trade. It doesn’t take a genius to figure they might want to trade for someone like
Dallas Goedert
, who previously played under Steichen in Philly.
Note that Ballard has been more likely to trade down rather than trade up. Ballard has made 20 draft-day trades as the Colts’ GM. Five of those 20 draft-day trades have been trade-ups, while 15 of them were trade-downs.
15. Atlanta Falcons:
Mike Green (DT – Marshall)
GM Terry Fontenot spent 18 years with the New Orleans Saints, serving in roles that included director of scouting and assistant general manager before becoming GM of the Atlanta Falcons at the start of 2021. It’s impossible to pinpoint precisely where Fontenot’s input on the roster weighed most heavily, so we have to look at his time spent with the Saints with a wide lens.
Those teams invested a lot of draft capital in WRs, especially big bodies. WR
Drake London
landing in Atlanta was one of the few picks I got right in 2022’s final mock draft.
In 2023, I was right again with the team landing
Bijan Robinson
. They followed up the RB selection with OT, DE, and CB. Very on-brand for Fontenot from his time spent in New Orleans, where the positions that earned more attention in the draft included defensive backs, linebackers, and offensive tackles.
In 2024, I didn’t mock the team to draft
Michael Penix
. But I did place a wager on it happening at absurdly long odds. The rest of the draft was defense (DT/LB/DT) in the top-4 rounds.
His 4-draft sample size with the Falcons can provide us with a better idea of the team’s approach entering Year 5 and the second in the post-Arthur Smith era.
Fontenot focused his first draft mostly on cornerbacks, defensive linemen, and offensive linemen. In his second draft, there was another attempt at addressing pass rush with more defensive linemen, followed by skill players (WR/QB/RB) and linebackers.
All in all, it seems pretty clear that it’s going to come down to CB or EDGE/DL with the 15
th
overall selection.
After all, it’s been four straight seasons that the Falcons have drafted a skill position player within the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft. With defensive head coach Raheem Morris taking over, he needs to flip the script and likely look HARD at the highest-ranked defensive player on the board.
Morris did so as much in 2 of the last three seasons with the Buccaneers as their previous head coach, with selections of interior disruptors:
Gerald McCoy
and
Adrian Clayborn
. In the other draft where they selected a QB first, the next highest pick was a DT.
And as the Rams’ defensive coordinator in 2023, LA’s defense ranked first in interior pass-rush win rate.
Simply put, aside from the QB selection in his first draft as an HC, every other selection Morris has made with the highest draft capital has been on a defensive lineman. Roy Miller, Brian Price, Kyle Moore and Da’Quan Bowers were all drafted with some of the highest draft capital available to Morris.
It’s pretty overwhelming how hyper-focused Morris has been targeting the DL, specifically the interior.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, since 2021, Fontenot has used over half of the Falcons’ Day 2 picks (7 of 10) on players in the trenches (4 EDGE, 1 DT, 2 OT).
16. Arizona Cardinals:
Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT – Texas)
Before the 2023 draft, Arizona hired Monti Ossenfort as their new general manager. Ossenfort spent his previous three seasons as the Titans’ director of player personnel from 2020-2022 after serving as a director of college football scouting with the New England Patriots from 2014-2019.
During Ossenfort’s tenure in Tennessee, the team spent high-end draft capital on OT
Isaiah Wilson
(29th overall), CB
Kristian Fulton
(61st overall), RB
Darrynton Evans
(93rd overall), CB Caleb Farley (22nd overall), OT
Dillon Radunz
(53rd overall), LB
Monty Rice
(100th overall), WR
Treylon Burks
(18th overall), CB
Roger McCreary
(35th overall), OT
Nicholas Petit-Frere
(69th overall), and QB
Malik Willis
(86th overall).
As you can see, he oversaw drafts involving many cornerbacks and offensive tackles at the top. He also drafted two players from Georgia with little success.
In his first draft as the lead man in 2023 for Arizona, he was aggressive with trades. He was also not afraid to take shots at guys who fell due to injury concerns.
They took OT
Paris Johnson
sixth overall (another Ohio State tackle), EDGE
BJ Ojulari
(41st), CB
Garrett Williams
(72nd), WR
Michael Wilson
(94th) and OG
Jon Gaines
(122nd). Wilson and Williams fell in the draft because of injuries.
Again, there was a clear desire to select tackles and cornerbacks, which aligns with what happened in Tennessee.
In 2024, they went WR, edge/defensive tackle and cornerback with their Round 1 and 2 selections.
Considering Mossenfort’s track record of drafting cornerbacks, I wasn’t surprised to see the team pull the trigger on a cornerback early in the draft with their surplus of Day 2 picks.
Especially when you consider his background with the Patriots organization, which is notorious for valuing coverage over pass rush. CB also remains a need with the current roster.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals traded down either from 16 if teams are looking for a pass rusher.
All in all, Ossenfort’s philosophies align with exactly what the Cardinals need: OL, CB and EDGE/DT.
Some prospects that fit needs at OL, CB, EDGE, DT and WR that Arizona has been connected to include: Defensive end Shemar Stewart from Texas A&M, WR Matthew Golden from Texas, WR Tre Harris from Ole Miss, Offensive lineman
Donovan Jackson
from Ohio State and CB Will Johnson from Michigan.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, out of Ossenfort’s 21 draft picks, the Cardinals have selected 19 prospects from Power 5 schools. The only two picks from non-Power 5 schools were Houston’s
Clayton Tune
(Houston moved to the Big XII months after he was drafted), and UAB’s
Tejhaun Palmer
(a 2024 sixth-round draft pick). Ossenfort’s two highest first-round picks have been used on former Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Cardinals hired former Ohio State offensive line coach Justin Frye as their OL coach this offseason. Don’t rule out Josh Simmons as a surprise pick here.
17. Cincinnati Bengals:
Mykel Williams (EDGE – Georgia)
The Bengals’ director of player personnel, Duke Tobin, has been running the show as the team’s de facto general manager since 2013. Over that time, he’s been no stranger to investing high-end draft capital into offensive linemen. Since 2015, the Bengals have drafted six offensive linemen (
Cedric Ogbuehi
, Jake Fisher, Billy Price,
Jonah Williams
,
Jackson Carman
and
Amarius Mims
) with first- or second-round picks.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, after drafting five offensive players in the first round from 2017 to 2021, the Bengals have spent two of their last three first-round picks on defense (
Myles Murphy
and
Dax Hill
). Additionally, over a four-year span (2010 to 2013), the Bengals selected five players from the University of Georgia. Since 2013, they’ve drafted only two players out of Georgia, which includes Mims.
However, they’ve twice selected a wide receiver in the first round (
John Ross
and
Ja’Marr Chase
). Their other recent highly drafted WRs have been second-rounders (
Tyler Boyd
and
Tee Higgins
).
Bolstering OL and WR is something the Bengals are not shy about doing as they look to get back into Super Bowl contention, even if they appear set at each position post-free agency.
Still, the strong track record of OL picks does support the rationale that they could ultimately go in that direction, given the long-term need for the position.
Another interior offensive lineman would make sense given that
Lucas Patrick
and
Ted Karras
will be free agents in 2026. Georgia center Jared Wilson could add some interior depth along with Arizona’s
Jonah Savaiinaea
. Although they did re-sign guard
Cody Ford
to a two-year deal.
In 2022, the Bengals went heavy on secondary assets- Daxton Hill,
Cam Taylor-Britt
, and
Tycen
Anderson
– and
Tobin has drafted two cornerbacks in the first round before (
William Jackson
and
Darqueze Dennard
). In 2023, CB was a priority with the second-round selection of D.J. Turner. That was after they took EDGE Myles Murphy in Round 1.
The Bengals drafted defensive tackles
Kris Jenkins Jr.
and
McKinnley Jackson
last year, so they might be banking on massive sophomore leaps to go along with bringing back some veterans.
Given all the resources thrown at the offense this offseason, the defense should be at the forefront of the Bengals’ 2025 draft plans.
Upgrades in the form of draft picks could be Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr., Ohio State’s
Jack Sawyer
, Marshall’s Mike Green, Texas A&M’s
Nic Scourton
and Shermar Stewart, Georgia EDGE Mykal Williams, Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen and Toledo DT
Darius Alexander
.
But CB can’t be ignored, given that their two starters are in the last years of their contracts.
There are talented defensive backs from Notre Dame in this year’s draft. Al Golden served as the DC for the Fighting Irish from 2022-2024. Keep an eye out for Benjamin Morris in Round 2 to the Bengals.
In Rounds 3 and 4, I’d keep an eye out for the Bengals to target linebackers. Not including last season, they’ve drafted a linebacker in the third round for seven consecutive seasons – until the streak broke in 2022.
Tobin has also shown a willingness to spend on tight ends in the draft. Most notably,
Tyler Eifert
(Round 1),
Tyler Kroft
(Round 3), and
Drew Sample
(Round 2) are among the Bengals’ most recent picks at the position. So, although they re-signed Mike Gesicki, I wouldn’t put it past them to add another TE if either Tyler Warren or
Colston Loveland
are available. They drafted two TEs last season in Rounds 4 and 6.
As for the fantasy folks out there, here is what we can expect from this backfield: a rookie RB added to the fold alongside
Chase Brown
and
Zack Moss
. In the last 12 drafts, the Bengals have drafted an RB in seven of them. It’s been all Day 3 picks in more recent years (since they drafted
Joe Mixon
in Round 2), but it’s clear they like additional bodies at RB.
The Bengals drafted Mixon in Round 2 when they had both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill on their roster already.
Bengals RBs drafted since 2013: Giovani Bernard (2nd), Jeremy Hill (2nd), two-year gap, Joe Mixon (2nd), Mark Walton (4th),
Trayveon Williams
(6th), N/A,
Chris Evans
(6th), N/A, Chase Brown (5th).
Another interesting coaching note: Jordan Salkin is the Bengals’ new WR coach after spending last year as an offensive assistant. He spent the 2023 season as an offensive analyst at the University of Oregon. Hello
Jordan James
.
Some other RBs they might consider late include Arizona’s
Cam Skattebo
, VT’s
Bhayshul Tuten
and Iowa’s
Kaleb Johnson
. They also met with Ohio State RB: TreyVeon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
18. Seattle Seahawks:
Grey Zabel (OG – North Dakota State)
Since 2010, Seattle has spent the majority of its draft picks inside the top four rounds on wide receivers, offensive linemen (specifically interior), and defensive linemen.
In 2024, under a new HC, they drafted a DT in Round 1, followed by an OG in Round 3.
Expect Seattle to avoid players with major red flags. They didn’t take
Jalen Carter
in 2023 despite many presuming Seattle wouldn’t pass on his talent. John Schneider drafted
Malik McDowell
in the second round (35th overall) back in 2017 despite character issues as a prospect. McDowell never played a down for Seattle. And since then, Seattle hasn’t drafted players highly with major red flags, opting for players with strong character to build their roster.
Mike Macdonald will enter Year 2 as the new head coach for the Seattle Seahawks, and there was credence to his defensive background influencing the first pick in last year’s NFL Draft. They addressed a glaring need. The 2023 defense struggled, specifically with rookie edge rusher and 2023’s second-rounder,
Derick Hall
. They had to improve the pass rush across the defensive line for 2024. Their run defense was also a major liability entering last year. This year, that liability is across the interior OL.
After drafting boundary players (CB/WR) in Pete Carroll’s last year as the HC, look for Seattle to improve the offensive trenches under their second-year head coach.
Macdonald’s bloodlines come from Baltimore, where those teams have traditionally favored defensive linemen, offensive guards, wide receivers, running backs, and cornerbacks. Also means that he might value non-premium positions more than most.
In other drafts, it might be early to take a guard at 18
th
overall. But not in this year’s class. All signs point to an upgrade on the OL clearly in play for Seattle.
North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel, you are a Seattle Seahawk.
Also very possible Seattle trades back to get additional picks while still grabbing a top-tier guard. If anything, I’d be surprised if they are not part of some type of trade package with another team moving up to grab a player who has fallen outside the top 15.
Per
NFL Draft IQ
, throughout his tenure as Seahawks GM since 2010, Schneider has traded back in the first round six times in drafts where the Seahawks had a first-round pick entering Day 1.
I will note that taking a guard in Round 1 would be an outlier for Schneider. Four of Schneider’s 12 first-round picks have been offensive tackles (Cross, Ifedi, Carpenter, Okung). No guard has been taken before the third round since 2010. Although FWIW, Zabel is defined as an offensive tackle in the NFL.com database. Even though the expectation is that he will kick inside at the pros.
Other prospects that Seattle has been tied to across the offensive line include Donovan Jackson from Ohio State, center Jared Wilson/IOL Dylan Fairchild from Georgia and William & Mary’s OT
Charles Grant
.
Beyond that, I’d expect more of the trend positions in the later rounds, such as WR. Or if the right WR is there in Round 1, I’d expect Seattle to pull the trigger.
South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori has met with Seattle multiple times during the pre-draft process. And boy, can that guy FLY.
Seattle has a new QB heading into 2025 go along with two second and two third-round picks in this year’s draft (five total picks inside the top 92).
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Jihaad Campbell (LB – Alabama)
What we can glean from Jason Licht’s time spent in Tampa Bay is that cornerback will be a top position to target. It was Licht’s most often drafted position during Rounds 1-4.
However, they have gone away from it in the last two seasons, with just one DB (safety Tykee Smith in Round 3 during the 2024 draft) selected.
The next most-drafted positions were defensive line, safety and running back.
The Bucs’ first pick in two of the last three seasons was a defensive tackle/edge player. But the top two picks have all followed the same pattern. Trench players. DT/EDGE and OL.
According to NFL Draft IQ, since 2018, Jason Licht has used each of the Buccaneers’ last six first-round picks on the defensive front seven or on the offensive line. Across his first four drafts as GM (2014-2017), Licht selected a WR, QB, CB and TE in the first round.
And whichever was the first pick, the opposite was the next selection. So whatever they do in Round 1 could be a strong tell for their approach to Round 2.
The second picks (aside from last season) were all OL. Again, that’s pretty in line with what we have seen from Licht’s past drafts.
The Bucs have drafted an OL in the top 3 rounds the last five years, including four inside the top 2 rounds.
Across his 11-year tenure, Licht has used a second-round pick on five different prospects from non-Power 5 schools (NFL Draft IQ).
Last year, it made sense that Tampa Bay went away from DT (instead opting for a bigger need on OL). This year, it would seem the script will flip back on defense in Round 1.
In a typical Licht draft, the top positions are CB, DL/EDGE and OL.
Other coaching notes to pay attention to…
The Bucs’ WR coach, Bryan McClendon, was at Georgia from 2022-2023. Keep an eye on former Georgia offensive linemen and some of their WRs, such as
Arian Smith
or
Dominic Lovett
.
The hot rumor is that they love Boston College edge rusher
Donovan Ezeiruaku
, with some medical red flags surfacing attached to Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell. Both seem like very likely options at 19th overall. Licht drafted linebacker
Devin White
5
th
overall back in 2019.
20. Denver Broncos:
Colston Loveland (TE – Michigan)
The main trends I found from past Vikings drafts with current Broncos GM George Paton on staff involve running backs, cornerbacks, and tackles.
The Broncos followed suit in Paton’s first draft with the team after selecting running back Javonte Williams in the second round (35th overall). The Broncos were also loaded at cornerback in 2021 but still drafted Patrick Surtain II anyway, along with three other defensive backs. In 2022, they selected two defensive backs in Rounds 4 and 5. In 2023, they again traded up to draft a CB (Riley Moss), after trading up to select WR Marvin Mims. In 2024, it was QB Box Nix at 12th overall, followed by DE Jonah Eliss and WR Troy Franklin in Rounds 3-4.
The one position they didn’t address AT ALL from 2021-2024 was offensive tackle. Per NFL Draft IQ, Paton has selected only four offensive linemen, all interior OL prospects over that span. Only one (
Quinn Meinerz
) was selected before the fifth round.
Since 2021, the Broncos have drafted 10 defensive backs, tied with the Cardinals and 49ers for the most in the NFL over that span. However, not necessarily premium picks. Patrick Surtain II (9th overall in 2021) was the only DB taken by the Broncos within the top-80 picks.
Spielman was never one to invest in the defensive line/EDGE early, although Paton bucked that trend slightly by selecting Nik Bonitto in Round 2 in 2022. Suggest Paton is more willing to add on the defensive front.
There is a long-term need on the defensive line with three defensive ends on the roster hitting free agency in 2026 between
Zach Allen
, John-Franklin Meyers and
Malcolm Roach
. But Sean Payton might just override anything to get his guy and potential “joker” in the offense.
Payton might have the most input over anybody in Denver’s war room since he arrived in 2023. That was apparent in 2023 when they traded up twice to target specific players. Payton knows who his guys are and will do what it takes to get them.
Overall, Payton’s draft tendencies: defensive backs, linebackers, wide receivers and tackles.
And both Paton and Payton are lockstep with drafting a running back at some point, whether that be in Round 1 or Round 6.
But ultimately, Payton will hand-pick his favorite skill player given his aggressive nature and more draft picks to barter with than last season.
The Broncos have drafted eight players with an 80+ Next Gen Stats production core under GM George Paton since 2021, tied with the Panthers and Ravens for the 2nd-most in the NFL.
The highest production scores in this class at RB that Denver could take in Round 1 include Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton and
TreVeyon Henderson
. At WR, Tetairoa McMillan is the only one who has an 80-plus production score. Emeka Egbuka is close at 78, but it’s still tied for second best in the class.
I think it is more likely we get a tight end/running back selection at 20 between Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland than Denver going WR at 20.
Some have reported that the Broncos have a love affair with Michigan’s tight end.
Whether that’s at 20 or earlier, remains to be seen.
Benjamin Albright thinks Denver is looking elsewhere
than receiver
. Guess we will find out.
Allbright also believes Henderson will be a Round 1 selection (would be stunned if he doesn’t go Round 1). And with Payton on the hunt for a Reggie Bush-type player, it’s hard not to see the similarities between the two RBs in his offense
21. Pittsburgh Steelers:
Shedeur Sanders (QB – Colorado)
The Steelers’ organization is well known for drafting wide receivers who seemingly outperform their draft-day position. During Kevin Colbert’s tenure from 2010 to 2022, they drafted the likes of Emmanuel Sanders,
Martavis Bryant
,
JuJu Smith-Schuster
,
James Washington
,
Diontae Johnson
,
George Pickens
, Chase Claypool, and
Calvin Austin III
outside the first round.
And oftentimes, it was not a position of need. That’s not the case in 2023, with the Steelers needing additional WR depth after trading away Diontae Johnson.
The Steelers have drafted a total of 11 WRs inside the top four rounds over that time – the most of any position. I do not doubt that the Steelers have an effective scouting system that works when identifying WR prospects, but the sheer volume of the receivers they draft increases their odds. Don’t think Pittsburgh won’t take a WR they like in Rounds 1-4.
Last year, they drafted
Roman Wilson
in Round 3 after foregoing the position in 2023.
The next three most popular selections by Colbert’s Steelers are linebacker, defensive back, and offensive line.
The O-line sticks out the most because it’s been a hot second since Pittsburgh last drafted an offensive lineman in the top two rounds (2012). In 2021, they failed to add anyone until Round 3. In 2022, they didn’t draft any offensive linemen. Colbert routinely passed on the position because they’ve had such a great line in recent years.
But after he stepped down after the 2022 draft, Omar Khan immediately stepped in and drafted an OL in Round 1 (
Broderick Jones
). He doubled down on OL in 2024, with two offensive line selections.
Khan is the first Steelers GM to invest in OL talent from the get-go.
According to NFL Draft IQ, over Khan’s two years as the team’s primary draft-day decision maker, the Steelers have made 14 picks, 13 of which from a Power 5 school. The two combined classes have had an average relative athletic score (RAS) of 9.1, with every one of their picks eclipsing 7.4, according to clevanalytics.com.
That would exclude Michigan DT
Kenneth Grant
as an option.
On defense, Khan will likely stick to needs based on drafting.
Pittsburgh has to come to grips with the reality that
Cameron Heyward
and
T.J. Watt
won’t be around forever and could be gone sooner than we think.
Larry Ogunjobi
is gone. Defensive tackle is a dire need.
But even Khan recognizes the problem with the Steelers in 2025 is not defensive-related. It’s about the offense. No team is spending less money on offense than the Steelers. It would behoove Pittsburgh to invest significant draft capital into offense, given no team is spending more on defense than the Steel Curtain.
Final point: The Steelers don’t try to hide the players they are interested in. Whether it’s in free agency or the NFL Draft, predicting who Mike Tomlin likes has not usually been a difficult task.
The issue is that this offseason, they have been connected to a lot of different prospects, with Colorado’s quarterback Shedeur Sanders the latest hot-button option amid his “fall” in draft stock over the last few weeks.
Penn Live Steelers reporter, Nick Farabaugh, also points out that the Steelers are all over the board with their pre-draft visits, hosting 1st rounders at WR, safety, DT/EDGE, QB and RB.
The Steelers will need to add another running back mate to pair with
Jaylen Warren
. The veteran addition in the backfield came in the form of
Kenneth Gainwell
, who was with the Eagles for the last four seasons.
But the team believes that Warren can be a three-down RB, so the amount of capital they invest in a backfield mate could be negligible at best. But Warren is only on a one-year deal, as is Gainwell.
The Steelers have also been doing extensive work on this year’s RB class. But they don’t have a second-round pick. Unless the move is Pickens for a second-rounder, I’d presume they are hoping to find value at the positions from Round 3 onward.
I think it might come down to
Derrick Harmon
versus Sanders. Note that the last defensive player selected by the Steelers in the first round was
Devin Bush Jr.
in 2019.
22. Los Angeles Chargers:
Kenneth Grant (DT – Michigan)
It’s Year 2 of Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz as the decision-makers for LA. Harbaugh was the head coach for the 49ers from 2011-2014. The first pick he made as the head coach was DE
Aldon Smith
at 7th overall. His first pick last season was OT
Joe Alt
.
Alt was the first OL Harbaugh drafted before Round 3.
With the 49ers the most high-end draft capital he invested was at safety (two first-rounders), followed by defensive ends. And maybe shocking to nobody, in every single draft, Harbaugh selected an RB inside the top four rounds, including twice in Round 2.
LaMichael James and
Carlos Hyde
were both drafted in Round 2. James ran WILD against Harbaugh’s defense while he was at Stanford.
Marcus Lattimore
and Kendall Hunter were Round 4 picks. All these RBs entered the NFL with very decorated college profiles.
He didn’t draft an RB until Round 6 last season, but it was a poor RB class.
Harbaugh only once drafted a strict pass-catcher in Round 1 – WR A.J. Jenkins. He was a total bust. WR Ladd McConkey was selected in Round 2, though, and looks like a major hit.
As for Hortiz’s influence from Baltimore (director of player personnel for Baltimore since 2019 under Eric DeCosta), we can look at what the Ravens have done historically.
In his five drafts working alongside DeCosta, Baltimore spent the majority of their top picks (inside the first five rounds) on defensive linemen, wide receivers, offensive guards, running backs, and cornerbacks.
An overarching strategy we should see continue to see from the newest HC/GM combination of Harbaugh and Hortiz (from Baltimore) is that they will have completely different values on the “non-premium” positions. Any talented player who falls based on position will undoubtedly be scooped up by the Chargers, whether they need him or not.
Also, they should be active in trade. In Baltimore under DeCosta, the Ravens have also averaged 1.0 trade per year since 2019, trading down twice as often as trading up.
Therefore, it’s hardly far-fetched to envision Harbaugh with a potential TE selection at 22
nd
overall. He loves tight ends.
Very possible that Harbaugh goes with the best WR/pass-catcher available, given the Ravens’ track record of drafting Round 1 WR/TE even in a “run-first” offense. The Ravens have selected seven wide receivers with top-150 draft picks since 2019, the most in the NFL over those six years.
Note that first-year safeties coach Adam Fuller comes over from Florida State, where he served as defensive coordinator over the last five seasons (NFL Draft IQ). Expect along with some former Wolverines for some ex-Seminoles to be drafted by the Chargers this year (NFL Draft IQ).
23. Green Bay Packers:
Maxwell Hairston (CB – Kentucky)
The Packers haven’t used a single first-round pick on a skill-position player since drafting
Aaron Rodgers
in 2005. That goes well beyond the tenure of Brian Gutekunst, the team’s GM since the start of 2018.
That trend continued last season, when they went OL in Round 1, before adding a running back in Round 3.
Still, how ironic would it be for GB to finally draft a Rd 1 WR, in a draft class that seemingly is lacking in star talent at the top?
Because it’s not like Gutekunst has been anti-drafting skill players. He has drafted plenty of wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends over the past six drafts – including three WRs and two TEs in 2023 – but few have turned into productive pros. At least until 2023’s crop of rookies hits from
Jayden Reed
,
Dontayvion Wicks
and
Tucker Kraft
hit in a relatively big way
The Packers’ general manager is willing to add weapons, and he tends to attack roster holes with more than one attempt.
I’d guess they look to the defensive secondary as an alternative. Three of the team’s nine highest draft picks have been on defensive backs since 2018.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, under GM Brian Gutekunst, the Packers have selected a defensive player with seven out of nine first-round picks since 2018. On Day 2, Gutekunst has spent a league-high nine picks on offensive skill positions over that span (4 TE, 3 WR, 2 RB). The last time the Packers used a first-round pick on a non-QB or offensive tackle was in 2002 when they selected Javon Walker with the 20th overall pick.
Green Bay has also drafted a center/interior offensive lineman in five of the last six drafts – three of which have been selected inside the top 65.
The Packers have drafted 14 offensive linemen during Gutekunst’s seven-year tenure as GM, 2nd-most in the NFL during that span. Out of the 13 OL picks who were invited to the Combine, the average weight was 309 pounds, lightest among any team’s OL draft picks over that span. Only one weighed more than 313 pounds (
Sean Rhyan
at 321 pounds) per NFL Draft IQ.
On a side note, the Packers tend to heavily lean on Relative Athletic Scores from the NFL Combine when selecting prospects. They look for certain thresholds to be hit.
Since 2018, Gutekunst has drafted a league-high 42 players with NGS athleticism scores that are higher than their NGS production scores as the Packers’ GM (NFL Draft IQ). If they were to go WR in Round 1, that would put Matthew Golden or Emeka Egbuka firmly in play.
Note that new Packers DC – Jeff Hafley – was the former head coach at Boston College. EDGE Donovan Ezekeirku is in play.
24. Minnesota Vikings:
Derrick Harmon (DT – Oregon)
Ex-Vikings GM Rick Spielman’s draft tendencies included targeting running backs, cornerbacks and tackles with premium picks. But he also never drafted a defensive end with a first- or second-round pick.
Therefore, the new Vikings general manager, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, seemed primed to flip the script on avoiding edge rushers/defensive linemen with high-end draft capital with his roots tied to the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers. He was part of the teams that drafted
Solomon Thomas
,
Nick Bosa
, and
Arik Armstead
in the first round.
However, that turned out not to be the case, with Adofo-Mensah drafting back-to-back defensive backs (
Lewis Cine
and
Andrew Booth
) plus a guard (
Ed Ingram
) with his first three selections in the 2022 NFL Draft. In the 2023 NFL Draft, Adofo-Mensah went WR in Round 1 (
Jordan Addison
) and double-dipped into the secondary again with back-to-back CB selections.
To some extent, the Vikings GM followed Spielman’s merits of investing in defensive backs and the offensive line. The Browns drafted Greg Newsome,
Grant Delpit
, and Jedrick Wills with their last top draft picks over the last two seasons Adofo-Mensah was in Cleveland. When Adofo-Mensah was with the 49ers and they weren’t drafting defensive linemen, they were selecting a mix of defensive backs and OL talents like Eric Reid,
Jimmie Ward
,
Jaquiski Tartt
, and
Mike McGlinchey
.
Linebacker was also a very popular position in Rounds 3 and 4. The Vikings drafted LB
Brian Asamoah
from Oklahoma 66th overall in 2022.
Because Minnesota has gone so defensive back-heavy from 2022-2023, I’d imagine they focus more on the defensive pass rush first, as the 49ers faithful have always traditionally done. That, along with help across the OL.
I was correct in those predictions last year, when they selected edge rusher
Dallas Turner
after taking QB
J.J. McCarthy
. With their only other remaining pick in Round 4, Minnesota took a DB.
Under Adofo-Mensah since 2022, the Vikings have selected eight defensive players, including five defensive backs, across 11 overall selections within the first four rounds (NFL Draft IQ).
I have learned from studying the tendencies of Adofo-Mensah’s drafts as GM, including his willingness to have no fear of targeting players that come with injury red flags at a suppressed price. He also apparently loves PFF, so it is something to keep in the back of your mind as we link certain players to the Vikings in the 2025 NFL Draft. He also knows the value of quantity over quality when it comes to the NFL Draft.
Therefore, I very much feel this is a prime trade-down spot given the Vikings’ lack of draft picks.
If they move back or stick and pick, I’d imagine it’s for a safety, cornerback or interior offensive lineman. Albert Breer did report that the Vikings shouldn’t be taken out of the DL market either, given the talent of this class and their goal to be bigger/tougher.
25. Houston Texans:
Tyler Booker (OL – Alabama)
In 2022, the Houston Texans showed us the kind of players they want to target. Five of their first six selections in the first four rounds came from the SEC, including two players from Alabama.
The Texans under Nick Caserio are well-known for loving players from Alabama. Anderson Jr.,
John Metchie
,
Henry To’oTo’o
, and
Christian Harris
have been selected from the Crimson Tide in the last two drafts since Caserio (from the Patriots) landed in Houston as their GM. DeMeco Ryans also played his college ball at Alabama.
Caserio will be entering his fifth year as the Houston Texans’ GM.
After focusing on offense with his top three picks in 2021, Caserio altered his plan slightly in 2022, splitting draft resources between both sides of the ball. Two offensive players and two defensive players were drafted within the first 45 overall selections: two defensive backs, one interior offensive lineman, and one wide receiver.
In 2023, Caserio once again splits the difference between offense and defense, drafting the eventual reigning OROY and DROY with
C.J. Stroud
/
Will Anderson Jr.
Then he overwhelmingly favored the offensive side of the ball with a center and another WR selection (
Tank Dell
) in Round 3.
In 2024, they held two second-round picks going CB/OT, followed by safety in Round 3.
With now four drafts in the bag, we can start to see some of Caserio’s drafting strategies. He’s drafted a WR in the top 3 rounds in three of four straight seasons.
Nico Collins
, John Metchie and Tank Dell. The other highest draft picks have been CB
Derek Stingley
, OG Kenyon Greene, S
Jalen Pitre
and CB
Kamari Lassiter
.
OL is the only offensive position Caserio has targeted multiple times over the last four seasons.
From a testing perspective, Caserio’s 2021 draft picks showed a pattern of testing well in the three-cone drill. That held true in 2022, as safety Jalen Pitre posted a 6.74 3-cone time (87th percentile), which was the third-fastest time among the 2022 safety class. They also drafted DT Thomas Booker, who tied for the fastest 3-cone among defensive tackles at 7.33 seconds (80th percentile).
In 2023, they drafted WR
Xavier Hutchinson
, who posted the fifth-fastest 3-cone in last year’s NFL Combine. In 2024, Lassiter posted a 93
rd
percentile 3-cone time.
Some of this year’s class’s top 3-cone drill performers who may be on the Texans’ radar at WR/OL include:
Tez Johnson
, Tate Ratledge,
Jaylin Lane
and
Jack Bech
.
I’d fully expect the Texans to trade up as well, given they have two third-round picks this season. Also, according to
NFL Draft IQ
, over four drafts as the Texans GM, Caserio has traded up 13 times on draft day (3.3 per draft), most among active GMs. In 2023 alone, the Texans made eight draft-day trades (five up, three down). Across 12 trades over the last two years, five were deals made with Howie Roseman and the Eagles.
More insights by Draft IQ include: Caserio has selected just one player (Tank Dell out of Houston) from a non-power conference (at the time they were drafted) out of 32 overall selections since 2021. In both the 2022 and 2023 drafts, the Texans selected multiple players out of Alabama.
Since 2021, the Texans are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t drafted a player with an NGS athleticism score above 85. On the flip side, only three of their 32 picks had an athleticism score below 60, with only one (Kamari Lassiter in 2024) who was selected before Day 3.
Alabama’s Tyler Booker was born to be a Texan.
26. Los Angeles Rams:
Jahdae Barron (CB – Texas)
The Los Angeles Rams didn’t have a first-round selection in the past seven seasons until the 2024 season.
Based on what Les Snead has done since becoming the GM in 2012, I thought they would add more talent to their secondary. They have drafted more defensive backs in the first three rounds than any other position.
In 2022, they drafted two cornerbacks and a safety with three of their first five selections. After completely foregoing any defensive back in 2023, I felt their draft strategy should normalize with secondary options in 2024.
A lot of defensive backs have been selected with high-end draft capital, although not much in recent years. Specifically, they never shied away from undersized CBs.
Instead, they focused on beefing up the defensive line in the 2024 draft. LA went heavy on the defensive trenches, but that might have been a less predictable trend given they were trying to replace future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald.
After the selections of
Jared Verse
and
Braden Fiske
, they went RB/S with two picks in Round 3.
The Rams also were trying to trade up for tight end Brock Bowers in Round 1, but to no success.
Other than secondary pieces, it’s worth noting that the Rams also heavily drafted running backs, wide receivers, and offensive tackles.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, Snead has used 31.2% of his Day 2 picks on running backs and wide receivers as Rams GM, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL since 2012.
In terms of trends from the 2024 draft, according to clevanalytics.com, seven of the Rams’ 10 draft picks in 2024 were 23 years old or older (including first and second-round picks Verse and Fiske). In the 2023 draft, Snead drafted two players over the age of 25 (Stetson Bennett and Byron Young).
These are two trends we should also pay attention to when considering who the Jaguars are looking to select,t given the Gladstone-Snead connection.
The Rams have also traded down twice as much as they traded up in the Snead era.
27. Baltimore Ravens
Malaki Starks (S – Georgia)
Eric DeCosta took over GM duties in 2019 after serving as the assistant GM for nine years. In his six drafts as the head honcho, Baltimore spent the majority of their top picks (inside the first five rounds) on defensive linemen, wide receivers, offensive guards, running backs, and cornerbacks.
According to NFL Draft IQ, THE Ravens have drafted a league-high 27 players with higher Next Gen Stats production scores than athleticism scores since 2019. They have also only drafted one player from Alabama under DeCosta.
The Ravens have selected seven wide receivers with top-150 draft picks since 2019, the most in the NFL over those six years.
IOL, EDGE, DT, CB/S are all major needs for the 2025 Ravens, so I’d imagine that is the route they go in the draft.
In the secondary, cornerbacks
Brandon Stephens
,
Tre’Davious White
and
Arthur Maulet
are all gone.
Baltimore has only five corners on its roster, with a late free agent signing by acquiring Chidobe Awuzie to a one-year deal. The Ravens GM confirmed that CBs are always a priority need in his pre-draft presser.
Safety also might need another body. Safety
Marcus Williams
was released. A’Darius Washington is a good third safety, but he won’t prevent them from adding to the position.
Keep an eye on Notre Dame’s
Xavier Watts
. In the later rounds, look at safeties such as Virginia’s
Jonas Sanker
, Penn State’s
Jaylen Reed
or Oklahoma’s
Billy Bowman
. Ravens GM Eric DeCosta confirmed that one of the 11 picks they have will be used on a safety and a cornerback.
28. Detroit Lions: Donovan Ezeiruaku
(EDGE – Boston College)
Fifth-year head coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes smashed their first pick as members of the organization in 2021. They followed it up with equally impressive drafts in 2022 and 2023…despite criticism after the draft concluded. Full disclosure: I gave the Lions a B for their
draft grade
.
Holmes’ experience with the Los Angeles Rams in various executive roles dating back to 2003 was apparent when the Lions decided on offensive tackle
Penei Sewell
with the seventh overall pick in 2021. From 2014 to 2016 – the last time L.A. had actual draft picks – the Rams invested significant draft capital in the tackle position. Holmes knows creating a QB-friendly environment is key to long-term success.
In 2022, the Lions used their first-round picks on defensive end
Aidan Hutchinson
(second) and wide receiver Jameson Williams (12th).
In 2023, the Lions used their first-round picks on RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LB
Jack Campbell
. Back-to-back seasons where the Lions have selected a former Crimson Tide player in Round 1 with the latest 2024 1st-rounder,
Terrion Arnold
. Four in the top 2 rounds over the last three seasons.
They are joined by Sewell,
Jared Goff
, Todd Gurley II, Aaron Donald, and Greg Robinson as the last seven first-rounders Holmes had a hand in selecting.
On Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft, Holmes selected fantasy TE1
Sam LaPorta
from Iowa, safety
Brian Branch
from Alabama, QB Hendon Hooker and DT
Brodric Martin
.
The Campbell/Holmes tandem has selected defensive linemen with the most draft capital (
Levi Onwuzurike
, Alim McNeil,
Derrick Barnes
, Hutchinson, Paschal, Martin), followed up by offensive line, wide receiver/tight end, and defensive back.
After going Arnold in Round 1, they doubled down at CB with Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in Round 2.
Given the top needs for the 2025 Lions – EDGE, OL, CB, WR- we can estimate that Detroit will look for BPA at a need, given how they have valued positions on the DL, CB, WR and OL in the past.
However, they have slightly favored defense under Holmes since 2021 using 10 of their 15 picks in the first three rounds on the defensive side of the ball (3 CB, 2 S, 2 ED, 2 DT, 1 LB) according to
NFL Draft IQ
.
The duo also has shown some tendencies to select players that have fast 10-yard splits (although that didn’t come to fruition last season.
Per NFL Draft IQ, Holmes has drafted a league-high 8 players with a Next Gen Stats athleticism score of 85 or higher during his 4-year tenure dating back to 2021. Their average NGS production score over the last four years (74.5) also ranks first over that same span.
According to clevanalytics.com, five of the six first-round picks under Holmes have been players younger than 22 years old, including Aidan Hutchinson, Penei Sewell and Jahmyr Gibbs. Out of 20 picks in the first four rounds, 18 have been from Power 5 schools.
All in all, the Lions are also not afraid to stick to their own internal values on players. They showed us in 2023 they are willing to “reach” on players they value the highest, even at less than premium positions. They are also not afraid to take shots at players with injury concerns, such as Jameson Williams and Hendon Hooker in back-to-back seasons.
29. Washington Commanders:
Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE – UCLA)
Martin Mayhew was hired by the Commanders four seasons ago. And he’s still in the building as the current senior personnel executive. But it’s Adam Peters who was hired as the new GM at the start of last season, coming over from the 49ers (2017-2023), where he served various roles from VP of player personnel and assistant general manager.
Mayhew’s draft tendencies revealed that linemen (both OL/DL) were a priority with his first-round picks, and CBs/WRs/RBs reflected the bulk of his second and third-round selections.
In the 2023 draft, the Commanders went back-to-back drafting CBs, just to trot one of the league’s worst defenses (again). Mayhew has always stuck to his “script” more often than not. He was also notable for investing decent draft capital into tight ends. Also, the guy loves to draft RBs.
However, Mayhew’s remaining influence on the draft picks under the regime of Peters, HC Dan Quinn, and OC Kliff Kingsbury is probably nothing more than an advisory role. They overlapped in time from their tenure with the 49ers from 2017 to 2020.
So, we can look at the 49ers’ overall draft record to get an idea of what they plan to do while also layering in some influences of Quinn and Kingsbury, both of whom have been NFL HCs before. We can also leverage Peters’ first draft with the team in 2024.
After QB
Jayden Daniels
, it was a defensive line in full 49ers fashion. Then it was CB, TE and offensive tackle to round out the top 5 selections.
In Peters’ first draft, the Commanders finished with the 3rd most athletic draft class by average NGS athleticism score across nine overall selections in the 2024 NFL Draft. Six of their selections recorded athleticism scores of 79 or higher (NFL Draft IQ).
All in all, it was a pretty status quo draft from a former 49ers executive. EDGE/CB as top priorities, followed by WR/TE/OL.
Quinn was the HC in Atlanta for five seasons (2015-2020). The top picks were a blend of pass-rushers/cornerbacks first, then WRs and IOL. He also took shots on RBs and DTs as well, but never with premium picks.
Kingsbury was the HC in Arizona from 2019-2022. The former HC drafted 3 total WRs in his first draft with the Cardinals. And like his counterparts, he also invested heavily in a tight end (
Trey McBride
) in Round 2.
Kingsbury consistently drafted pass rushers in Round 3. But he made little investment in the OL with
Josh Jones
the highest draft pick (Round 3).
This is a classic case of his belief that his “Air Raid” system does not require premium-level OL talent, which is not dissimilar to what we have seen from SF’s drafting strategy.
So we should likely expect defensive trenches as the first pick for the Commanders, if not WR. Do keep in mind that they don’t have any third-round picks in the draft, and they have just five picks overall. Look out for the Commanders to trade back out of Round 1.
UCLA LB
Carson Schwesinger
and EDGE rusher Oluwafemi Oladejo have a connection with Commanders LB coach Ken Norton Jr. from his time spent as UCLA’s LB coach. Schwesinger/Oladejo have gotten some late first-round buzz, so they could be a Commanders’ target late in Round 1 or early in Day 2 if they opt to move back.
30. Buffalo Bills:
Nic Scourton (EDGE – Texas A&M)
Brandon Beane has been the Bills’ GM since 2017 and deserves praise for not only drafting quarterback
Josh Allen
but building a roster that aided in his development.
Beane has been a pretty balanced drafter over the past seven seasons, with the defensive line the only position he has taken extra shots on in the early rounds. Outside of the defensive line, the remaining positions he’s targeted most include running back, wide receiver/tight end, cornerback, and offensive line.
According to
NFL Draft IQ
, the Bills have selected a premium position (QB, WR, OT, ED, DT or CB) with eight out of 10 picks in the top 50 under Beane. The two non-premium picks were TE
Dalton Kincaid
in 2023 and LB
Tremaine Edmunds
in 2018.
The Bills have selected at least one wide receiver in seven out of eight drafts under Beane.
2023 was pretty status quo with him selecting TE Dalton Kincaid and IOL
O’Cyrus Torrence
in the first 2 rounds. However, no DL draft picks were somewhat surprising along with no RBs.
In 2024, Buffalo went WR and S with their two first-round picks before drafting a DT at the end of Round 3.
In 2025, Buffalo will most likely address the needs at CB, EDGE/DT, IOL or WR in Round 1, and the choice will be dictated by the best player available. After mostly forgoing the defensive line the past three seasons in the draft, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Buffalo head back in that direction in a talented DT/EDGE class.
Names to consider: Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton,
Joshua Farmer
, Defensive Tackle from Florida State, Walter Nolen, DT from Ole Miss, Kenneth Grant, Defensive Tackle, Michigan, Landon Jackson, Defensive End, Arkansas, and Oluwafemi Oladejo, Outside Linebacker, UCLA.
And given Beane’s propensity to draft RBs, I’d be surprised if they don’t add a big body in the position room to complement a slightly undersized
James Cook
, who is entering a contract year without a new deal.
Recent reports have claimed things have not “been great” between the two parties as they look to build out a long-term extension, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport.
Buffalo has two second-round picks in the draft, but no third-rounders (
Amari Cooper
trade).
The four running backs selected by this regime all came between Rounds 2 through 4 (NFL Draft IQ).
Current Bills cornerbacks coach Jahmile Addae, who has stops on his resume at Georgia, Miami, and West Virginia, among others, was the coach who recruited Malaki Starks to Georgia. (NFL Draft IQ).
Buffalo has been sniffing around the safety position with prospects such as Nick Emmanwori, Safety, South Carolina,
Andrew Mukuba
, Texas, Malaki Starks, Georgia and Xavier Watts, Safety, Notre Dame.
31. Kansas City Chiefs:
Josh Simmons (OT – Ohio State)
Brett Veach has been his team’s GM since 2017. Being part of the staff that drafted
Patrick Mahomes II
seemingly makes Veach impervious to criticism, but there are still takeaways to be gained from his overall drafting history.
He’s drafted a defensive lineman in the top three rounds in five of the last eight drafts. In 2023, the trend continued with the selection of defensive end
Felix Anudike-Uzomah
32nd overall. But it did not continue in 2024, with KC going WR/OT in the first two rounds.
The 2024 Chiefs draft also marked the fifth consecutive season the team drafted an offensive lineman in the first five rounds since 2017 (Wayna Morris).
Veach never stops drafting offensive linemen to help protect their QB.
Potential late-round 1 targets the Chiefs might consider include Minnesota OT
Aireontae Ersery
, Oregon OT Josh Conerly and Ohio State OT Josh Simmons.
CB
Trent McDuffie
at 21st overall is the highest they have drafted a defensive back. That’s the highest draft capital that Veach has spent on any selection besides Patrick Mahomes in his tenure as the Chiefs’ GM.
If the Chiefs feel that
Rashee Rice
might miss time due to a suspension/injury return, look for KC to be more aggressive going after a WR in the draft. In addition to
Mecole Hardman
in Round 2, they have also drafted a WR in Round 2 or earlier in the last three drafts. Seems like they might prefer Round 2 rather than Round 1 for WRs, although that wasn’t the case with
Xavier Worthy
in Round 1 last season.
Per
NFL Draft IQ
, Veach has drafted an offensive skill position player (RB, TE, WR) within the first two rounds in five of the last six drafts, including three wide receivers in each of the last three drafts.
Additionally, all six first-round picks by the Chiefs under Veach were 21 years old when they were drafted. Over a quarter of all players drafted in that span came from a non-Power 5 school.
32. Philadelphia Eagles:
Walter Nolen (DT – Ole Miss)
Howie Roseman is no stranger to selecting wide receivers early on, having selected one in the top two rounds over the last six seasons, two of which have been first-round picks. WR is firmly in play with one of the Eagles’ later-round picks, given that the team is still looking for a viable No. 3 WR option that could be more of a need if they trade Dallas Goedert.
Given the strength at tight end in this year’s class, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them draft one. Howie Roseman is always one step ahead of replacing guys. The two TEs on the depth chart are in the last years of their contracts. LSU’s
Mason Taylor
might be a sneaky target for Philly in the second round.
Last season, the Eagles were prime candidates to go with a cornerback and they drafted two of them with their top two selections.
But this team loves to invest high-end draft picks into their OL more than any other position. And that makes OL the move Roseman may settle on.
Since 2019, Roseman has drafted an offensive lineman in the first four rounds of every draft, three of which have been second-round selections or higher. Of course, this streak broke last season.
Look for them to get back on the trench trend. Under Howie Roseman, the Eagles have used 10 out of his 13 first-round picks to address the trenches (which excludes 2015, when Chip Kelly had control of the roster).
And when in doubt, the Eagles usually just draft a player from Georgia. They drafted three former Bulldogs in 2023.
Georgia safety, Malaki Starks, you ARE A PHILADELPHIA EAGLE. But jokes aside, secondary is probably the biggest area of
need
. The Eagles might need more depth at cornerback after moving on from several guys last season. Darius Slay, James Bradberry,
Isaiah Rodgers
and
Avonte Maddox
won’t be back.
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2025 NFL Mock Draft: First-Round Picks & Predictions
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